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AHRENS SECURITY
Expert Witness Consulting
I CAPTURE PUBLIC
DATA / EVIDENCE
My goal is not to do depositions, or trials. I use visual aids to quickly convey complex topics through publicly accessible data and make opposing counsel abandon the attack/defense.
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As such I run my business and expertise on undeniable statistics, I create the best planning and strategy to help win your case.
By the numbers:
2.5 years of expert witness
19 total cases
6 cases are pending
58% of my cases are the plaintiff
42% of my cases are defense
3 of my case I have been deposed in
4 cases have required reports
77% have positive outcomes
2 I have withdrawn from
Let me show you how to win foreseeability cases with demonstrative data
Macro crime trends
Census tract comparison
Local Crime
Parking Garage
Resident Reviews
Other Public Data
Census Tract Comparison
I analyze data and metrics such as population, unemployment and poverty. From different ages and specifics in population.
What I look at:
Incident type
Date and time breakdown
Individual incidents map
Violent crime heat map
What I look at:
Incident type
Date and time breakdown
Individual incidents map
Violent crime heat map
Census Overview
Census Overview
Population
Population is broken down into 3 major age groups. The top bar graph shows the local census tracts fluctuating, but overall a relatively constant population. The local census tract's breakdown between the 3 age groups skews more heavily
to the"Ages 18-65" classification than its surrounding county, state, and national averages.
to the"Ages 18-65" classification than its surrounding county, state, and national averages.
Education
Educational attainment is broken down into four categories ranging from "Less Than High School" to "Bachelors Degree or Higher". The percentage of residents in the local census tract with a bachelors degree or higher greatly exceeds national, state, and county levels.
Unemployment
Unemployment levels have decreased significantly across all geographic categories over the time period from 2012 to 2018. Unemployment rates in Philadelphia county have tracked well above local census tract, state, and national averages.
Poverty
Local census tract poverty rates experienced a 43% reduction from 2012 to 2018. On the other hand county, state, and national average poverty rates have remained relatively constant. The reduction in local census tract poverty needs the context of starting at a poverty rate of nearly 37% in 2012, which was 42% above the Philadelphia County level of 26.2%. While local census tract poverty levels have been reduced, they still remain well in excess of state and national averages. The graph also shows Philadelphia County's poverty rate has remained substantially higher than state and national averages. The takeaway is that, despite reductions at a local census tract level, local census tract and county poverty greatly exceed state and national averages.
Poverty Level Thresholds
Poverty thresholds provide a more granular view of the percentage of population in proximity to poverty. For example, "Below 150% Poverty" is interpreted as someone who is 50% above the poverty level. This portion of the population is technically not in poverty but is likely struggling. The local census tract graph shows the portion of population below 50% poverty has remained between 14-22%. This is 2-3 times larger than state and national averages which have averaged around 6-7%.
Macro Crime Trends
I use violent crime data gathered from the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Database. I compare different crime rates at different cities and breakdown different sets of data that cover violence and property crimes.
What I look at:
Population
Education
Unemployment
What I look at:
Population
Education
Unemployment
Violent Crime Comparison
Violent crime rates at a city level have been compared to those at a national and state level over time. The comparison takes Philadelphia's violent crime rate and divides it by the respective national or state violent crime rate. A value exceeding 1 means Philadelphia's rate is higher than the basis of comparison. For example in 2017, the violent crime rate for Philadelphia was 3.95 compared to the national average of 9.44 crimes per 1,000 residents.
This means Philadelphia's violent crime rate was 2.47 times (9.44/3.95) the national average (or nearly 2.5 times the national average). The data shows
Philadelphia's violent crime rate has remained well above national and state averages. The key takeaway, as evidenced by the nearly horizontal dotted trend lines, is that Philadelphia's violent crime rate has remained around 2.5 to 3 times higher than state and national violent crime rates.
This means Philadelphia's violent crime rate was 2.47 times (9.44/3.95) the national average (or nearly 2.5 times the national average). The data shows
Philadelphia's violent crime rate has remained well above national and state averages. The key takeaway, as evidenced by the nearly horizontal dotted trend lines, is that Philadelphia's violent crime rate has remained around 2.5 to 3 times higher than state and national violent crime rates.
Violent Crime Breakdown
This section's data set is source from the FBl's Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) database and covers violent and property crimes reported by the Philadelphia Police Department. Incidents of violent crime were collected between 2000-2018. Incidents are normalized by Philadelphia's annual population, converting incident quantity into a rate. Specific violent crimes can be isolated using the filters to the right. The data shows rates of Robbery have decreased substantially from 2000-2018. However, rates for Homicide and Rape have remained relatively constant and even show minor increases from 2000-2018.
Property Crime Over Time
Pennsylvania property crime rates have remained well below the national average. However, Philadelphia's property crime rates greatly exceed both national and state averages. Philadelphia's property crime rate decreasing from 51.4 property crimes per 1,000 residents in 2000 to 313 in 2018 is progress in an absolute sense. However, this progress must be viewed with the context of similar corresponding decreases at state and national levels. The key takeaway is, despite progress, property crime rates in Philadelphia remained well above state and national averages for the time period between 2000-2018.
Property Crime Comparison
Property crime rates at a city level have been compared to those at a national and state level over time. This comparison takes Philadelphia's property crime rate and divides it by the respective national or state property crime rate. A value of above 1 means that Philadelphia's value is in excess of the basis of comparison.
For example in 2017, the property crime rate for Philadelphia was 30.79 compared to the national average of 23.63. This means Philadelphia's property crime rate was 1.3 (30.79/23.63) times the national average. The purple dashed line in the lower graph shows Philadelphia's property crime rate tracking roughly 2 times the Pennsylvania average. The key takeaway is the scale and consistency with which Philadelphia's property crime rates exceed both national and state averages.
For example in 2017, the property crime rate for Philadelphia was 30.79 compared to the national average of 23.63. This means Philadelphia's property crime rate was 1.3 (30.79/23.63) times the national average. The purple dashed line in the lower graph shows Philadelphia's property crime rate tracking roughly 2 times the Pennsylvania average. The key takeaway is the scale and consistency with which Philadelphia's property crime rates exceed both national and state averages.
Property Crimes Over Time
Incidents of property crimes were obtained from the FBI's UCR database for the Philadelphia Police Department covering the years of 2000-2018. Property crimes are broken down into four categories by the UCR, which can be isolated using the filters shown to the right. As the data shows, property crime rates have decreased over the past 20 years. The data shows a large decrease in Motor Vehicle Theft with smaller decreases in Burglaries. Incidents of Larceny-Theft on the other hand has remained relatively constant from 2000-2018
City vs National Rates
The graph below compares Philadelphia and national crime rates for selected crimes over time. For example, if Homicide is selected, we can see that Philadelphia's rate in 2017 was 0.2 homicides per 1,000 residents, which was 4 times the corresponding national rate in 2017 of 0.05 homicides per 1,000 residents. When looking at the property crime of Burglary, we notice a different trend where Philadelphia's rates are closer to national rates. The takeaway is that across nearly all violent and property crime categories, Philadelphia's rates are in large excess of national average rates.
Click on the images below to learn more...
Census Tract Comparison
I analyze data and metrics such as population, unemployment and poverty. From different ages and specifics in population.
What I look at:
Incident type
Date and time breakdown
Individual incidents map
Violent crime heat map
What I look at:
Incident type
Date and time breakdown
Individual incidents map
Violent crime heat map
Census Overview
Census Overview
Population
Population is broken down into 3 major age groups. The top bar graph shows the local census tracts fluctuating, but overall a relatively constant population. The local census tract's breakdown between the 3 age groups skews more heavily
to the"Ages 18-65" classification than its surrounding county, state, and national averages.
to the"Ages 18-65" classification than its surrounding county, state, and national averages.
Education
Educational attainment is broken down into four categories ranging from "Less Than High School" to "Bachelors Degree or Higher". The percentage of residents in the local census tract with a bachelors degree or higher greatly exceeds national, state, and county levels.
Unemployment
Unemployment levels have decreased significantly across all geographic categories over the time period from 2012 to 2018. Unemployment rates in Philadelphia county have tracked well above local census tract, state, and national averages.
Poverty
Local census tract poverty rates experienced a 43% reduction from 2012 to 2018. On the other hand county, state, and national average poverty rates have remained relatively constant. The reduction in local census tract poverty needs the context of starting at a poverty rate of nearly 37% in 2012, which was 42% above the Philadelphia County level of 26.2%. While local census tract poverty levels have been reduced, they still remain well in excess of state and national averages. The graph also shows Philadelphia County's poverty rate has remained substantially higher than state and national averages. The takeaway is that, despite reductions at a local census tract level, local census tract and county poverty greatly exceed state and national averages.
Poverty Level Thresholds
Poverty thresholds provide a more granular view of the percentage of population in proximity to poverty. For example, "Below 150% Poverty" is interpreted as someone who is 50% above the poverty level. This portion of the population is technically not in poverty but is likely struggling. The local census tract graph shows the portion of population below 50% poverty has remained between 14-22%. This is 2-3 times larger than state and national averages which have averaged around 6-7%.